Beyond the noise

Despite global crosscurrents, deal flow is building, activity is lifting and investment opportunities are widening.

Amid the geopolitical chatter and the usual doomsayers, Bayleys is simply getting on with it by finding opportunity, shaping strategy, tapping new buyer pools and putting our national scale to work. We’ve been talking about a lift in deal flow for some time now and the formal numbers confirm it, with the upswing clearly on record.

Transaction volumes have been rebuilding steadily, and by the end of 2025, CoreLogic figures show commercial and industrial sales had recovered to around two-thirds of the volumes recorded during the post-pandemic surge of 2021. As we move into the fourth year of the recovery, momentum is clearly re-establishing.

Regional markets strengthen as primary sector outperforms

Activity is nuanced with the South Island powering ahead, driven by a rural sector that, viticulture aside, is firing on all cylinders. Rising export earnings across the primary sector are adding real weight to regional confidence, with dairy and red meat outperforming and the Fonterra–Lactalis payout providing an additional boost.

In contrast, metropolitan markets in the North Island remain more subdued, but the rebound in tourism as a material driver of national GDP is beginning to flow through to confidence. Auckland has seen softer investment activity, but with the CRL set to open later this year and Cooper and Company advancing the next stage of its Britomart regeneration through the new Britomart Central office development, there’s good news emerging.

Office market trends shift towards office-first future

The office story is interesting, with Knight Frank’s global office sector data pointing to a structural shift in workplace strategy. When organisations were asked how they expect their predominant workstyle to look in three years, the clear trend was away from hybrid models and toward an office-first approach, so the pendulum is swinging back.

As we go to print, the Transport and Infrastructure Select Committee is set to report back to the House on the Building (Earthquake prone Buildings) Amendment Bill, which had its first reading late last year. The bill will then head to its second reading, with the proposed updates designed to move New Zealand toward a more balanced, risk-based seismic framework. The changes aim to reduce unnecessary cost by concentrating rules on the highest-risk buildings and giving owners clearer direction around what’s expected. We know our clients are ready for progress on this legislation as the uncertainty has dragged on for too long.

Listing numbers for our latest edition of Total Property are higher than in the last portfolio, which may suggest that more owners see the upcoming election lead-in period as a window to bring assets to market and get deals done. Conversations with accountants and investment bankers point to significant movement in the $20-million-plus commercial market, reinforcing the depth of activity this election window is unlocking.

Let Bayleys help you cut through the background noise and focus on what’s really happening in the commercial and industrial market. There’s strength in action and we take on the heavy lifting, so you don’t have to.