With a number of on farm and economic indicators pointing in a more positive direction, it is expected confidence will build this spring for rural landowners behind the farm and orchard gates.

There are glimmers that things could be on the improve after a challenging couple of years for the rural sector. While the volume of rural transactions is at one of the lowest points seen since the GFC, quality properties with good infrastructure and location continue to attract buyers and often, premium dollars.

Some larger deals are starting to take shape, and multiple parties are reappearing on some offerings which is encouraging and a sign that there’s an increasing depth of buyers in the market. The $10m-plus segment of the rural market had been languishing earlier in the year so to see transactional activity return is a good bellwether for the sector in general.

The dairy and kiwifruit sectors have stabilised which is heartening news. Fonterra’s midpoint farmgate milk price forecast for the 2024-2025 season is sitting at $8.50, with bank economists being slightly more bullish and picking midpoints just north of this. We have also seen the largest-ever kiwifruit crop exported this season, helped by recently developed orchards that started producing fruit.

Sheep and beef farmers are seeing an improvement in the beef schedule, but despite New Zealand’s fine reputation as a quality protein producer, profitability is still a challenge. With inflation being reined into the Reserve Bank’s target band, further cuts to the Official Cash Rate (OCR) signalled and subsequent interest rate decreases anticipated, some relief may finally be in sight for the rural sector.

Although there might still be more to this cycle to get through, any buyers waiting for the bottom of the property cycle may have missed that boat given many of the indicators are now pointing in a more positive direction. It’s a timely and important reminder that owning rural land is often a long-term investment decision.

The regulatory environment has provided some respite and clarity for rural landowners, with the coalition government confirming it will remove agriculture from the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), signalling it will take a science-first approach to the sector’s biogenic methane emissions.

Meanwhile, the underlying fundamentals of New Zealand agriculture remain world-leading and the NZ Inc. story proudly championed is being recognised. The natural attributes of our produce is a powerful force in global markets where downstream supply chain and consumers are wanting to know more about where their food comes from and how it is produced.

In the lifestyle market, there’s still strong demand for well-located property that can satisfy buyer desire for a place to live, work and play. The OCR movement downwards is an important part of the lifestyle market puzzle, and as the cost of building is still relatively high, lifestyle blocks with existing dwellings remain in favour.

With Bayleys Country celebrating 25 years of having a dedicated team, we are immensely proud of what we have achieved for our clients over all these years. Being recognised again by the industry as the most awarded rural real estate brand along with the silver anniversary is a small reflection of what we’ve been doing to get the best for all our clients.

So, if you’d like to experience how you can get more with Bayleys – get in touch with our Bayleys Country team.

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